Competitive Play
Statistical analysis of matchups, tournaments, championships and the teams in them.
Start here · Essential guide
How to estimate who wins an esports tournament by combining per-match odds with bracket format, seeding and field strength, with worked arithmetic examples.
A tour of the maths behind professional esports, from per-round averages and rating systems to scouting reports and uncertainty, explained without heavy formulas.
How a team's strength on specific maps shapes series outcomes, why vetoes matter, and how to read map win rates without trusting thin samples.
How past results between two teams can inform a prediction and where they mislead, including small samples, roster changes and style matchups.
A cautious statistical look at how likely different routes into professional and semi-professional gaming are to succeed, and why the odds are long for most.
A statistical view of what separates winning rosters, including role balance, consistency, variance and roster stability, with caution about causes.
How callouts, shared information and coordination feed into the chance of winning a team match, and why communication is hard to measure.
How a team's chance of winning a title builds up over rounds, why a favourite can be unlikely to win overall, and why favourites still lose finals.
How to read matchup win chances for characters, teams and drafts, what a counter really changes, and why a 60-40 matchup is not a guaranteed result.
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